Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
BIG BET
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
Exploring the intersection of climate security, climate adaptation and conflict in Blue Nile State.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
Blue Nile State is 1 out of 18 states in Sudan. As one of the least developed states, it encapsulates the nexus of conflict, water & land displacement, and climate change.
Blue Nile’s environment includes three central variables necessary to identify this problem:
• Difficulty to access water/chronic water shortages, (e.g. Samsur in Blue Nile State)
• Almost entirely dependent on agriculture and pastoralism for livelihoods,
• Long standing political tension between government, armed groups and tribal communities. (e.g. Alkaili and Gambara are in government-controlled areas, but Samsur, Dearang, and Al-Hilu have SPLM-N presences.)
The “climate-conflict trap” – climate change’s impact on natural resources (such as creating water shortages) exacerbates conflict as communities (especially those with livelihoods dependent on environmental resources, such as farmers and pastoralists) move around to find access to resources.
This negative cycle of conflict over limited resources then pushes communities into using harmful land management methods out of survival that further harm/degrade the environment.
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
In Blue Nile state, there was also a significant rise in the number of political violence events and reported fatalities, from nine recorded events and 11 reported fatalities in 2021 to 37 and 487, respectively, in 2022. The state has faced an outbreak of violence between armed ethnic militias, fighting over land access and ownership. In July, Hamaj, Barta, and Foung militias on the one hand, and Hausa and al-Falata militias on the other, engaged in week-long fighting, leading to hundreds of reported casualties.Tensions had increased after the Hausa demanded the creation of a “civil authority to supervise access to land,” which was rejected by the tribal administration, as some local tribes still perceive the Hausa as ‘outsiders.’Violence has been fueled by hate speech propagated by tribal leaders vying for political power in the region. Deadly violence reignited in September between Hausa and Ingessana ethnic militias after displaced Hausa civilians started returning to their homes. Another round of clashes erupted in October in Wad al-Mahi, after two farmers from the Hamaj tribe were reportedly killed, allegedly by Hausa militiamen. Hausa and Ingessana ethnic militias engaged in clashes over two weeks, resulting in at least 250 reported fatalities, hundreds injured, and thousands more displaced. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, as of November 2022, “the latest wave of violence has displaced over 97,000 people within the state since July 2022.” In January 2023, the tribes signed a framework agreement for peaceful coexistence to end the violence and commit to resolving their disputes by peaceful means.
The power vacuum resulting from the 2021 military coup and the presence of several armed groups – including the Sudanese Armed Forces, the semi-autonomous RSF, and rebel groups – in periphery states, particularly Blue Nile, West Kordofan, and West Darfur, has not only contributed to an escalation of inter-communal violence but also facilitated the rapid increase in the number of ethnic militias.
https://acleddata.com/2023/03/03/context-assessment-new-political-deal-amidst-rising-political-disorder-in-sudan/#dash
https://acleddata.com/africa/horn-of-africa/sudan/
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
“Natural resources play an important role in defining conflict as extractive resources contribute to financing operations of the different groups. This has implications for other layers of conflict which center more squarely on natural resources and the environment, including conflict over land and water between farmers and herders or amongst farmers.”
UNDP. “Contextual Analysis: Two Areas and Adjoining States- Sudan, through the Lens of Mobility, Displacement
and Development. July 2020.
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
Regenerative Design is a pipeline/solution to peacebuilding between/for agriculturally dependent stakeholders at risk of displacement.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
CI Climate Security in Blue Nile emphasises the importance of including Indigenous communities, their knowledge, and cultural practices in climate mitigation efforts.
Partners
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
1. UNDP Sudan
- Climate Security Team
- Crisis Risk Dashboard Team
- Environment Team
2. UNEP
3. UN Women
What sector does our partner belong to?
United Nations
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
This refers to the UNDP Portfolios engaged in this project, in particular the Climate Security Team to which this work is anchored to. They are our activity 'client' in the sense that this team had clear asks and outputs from the CI work we are doing.
The VP for CI to them (UNDP+UNEP+UNWomen) if it can help the project in Blue Nile identify traditional/ancestral community climate adaptation practices that the project may not be aware of to support project scalability and impact.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Blue Nile farmer and pastoralists communities
What sector does our partner belong to?
Civil Society
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
This relates to the communities of interest to the joint UNDP-UNEP-UN Women climate security project in BN. As those most affected of climate impact and climate related displacement over conflict over resources, these are the communities we will need to co-create and participate in the design, validation and implementation of the CI project.
This includes creating two- way communication, data sharing, feedback loops and milestone validation through local partners and community volunteers particularly when the state becomes inaccessible during the peak rainy season.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Learning questions
Learning question: What is your learning question for this challenge? What do you need to know or understand to work on your challenge statement?
What are the climate issues that impact Blue Nile state?
Do Regenerative Design applications influence peacebuilding for communities at risk of displacement as a result of climate conflict on a global scale?
Are there existing forms of regenerative design currently practiced by agricultural stakeholders in communities (in Sudan)?
How can communities at risk of displacement as a result of climate conflict synthesize RD practices?
To what stage(s) in the learning cycle does your learning question relate?
Sense, Explore, Test
Usage of methods: Relating to your choice above, how will you use your methods & tools for this learning question? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Collective Intelligence is central to this Big Bet a method to bring greater in depth and granular level understanding of the climate crisis in Sudan through and with the communities most affected. Prototyping. PD. participatory design or data ethnography are all sub-tools that will contribute to the use of Data, Community and Tech for bringing this greater clarity to the challenge at hand.
Existing data gaps: Relating to your choice above, what existing gaps in data or information do these new sources of data addressing? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
TKS/IKS- traditional knowledge systems brings to the forefront the value of existing knowledge of practices that communities are already using in the face of climate shocks. We know these pools of knowledge, particularly in agricultural are passed on generationally but not necessarily between peers. Farmer community groups or across farmer and pastoralists. Understanding and documenting this knowledge to ascertain;
1. How common/uncommon these practices are
2. Even if they yield results are they forms of maladaptation that can contribute to increased conflict over resources
3. What kind of practices do farmers and pastoralists find valuable
Closing
Early leads to grow: Think about the possible grow phase for this challenge - who might benefit from your work on this challenge or who might be the champions in your country that you should inform or collaborate with early on to help you grow this challenge?
Since this work is already anchored to an existing project for which the outcomes need to contribute to- in a way we have identified early stage pathways to grow.
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1No poverty
13Climate action
16Peace, justice and strong institutions
